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2024-12-14 10:04:39

The memorial hall for the victims of the Nanjing Massacre by the Japanese invaders held a ceremony to raise the national flag and fly it at half mast. (CCTV)Soochow securities: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bps in December. According to the soochow securities Research Report, the CPI of the United States rebounded to +2.75% in November as scheduled, and the CPI that did not exceed expectations cleared the last obstacle for the Fed to cut interest rates in December. In the short term, the combination of low base and high viscosity means that CPI is expected to continue to rebound to +2.8% in December. In the medium term, Trump is expected to drive out illegal immigrants on the first day after taking office, which will aggravate the risk of stagflation in the labor market. However, the intensification of wage inflation stickiness may be concealed by the downward movement of non-agricultural centers in the same period, the expectation of increasing oil prices and the high base in the first half of 2025. The market's concern about "stagnation" may provide room for the Fed to cut interest rates smoothly in the first half of 2025. However, in the second half of 2025, the cumulative interest rate cuts will give support to the economy, the persistence of inflation stickiness and the landing of Trump's tax reduction policy will force the Fed to cut interest rates. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bps in December, 25bps in March and June next year, and stop cutting interest rates in the second half of the year. The end point of the policy interest rate in 2025 is [3.75,4.0]%.The restricted shares with a market value of 644 million yuan were lifted today. Xishan Technology, Betray and Wanda Bearing were among the top companies in terms of market value. On Friday (December 13th), the restricted shares of eight companies were lifted, with a total lifting amount of 20,925,400 shares. According to the latest closing price, the total lifting market value was 644 million yuan. Judging from the amount of lifting the ban, Betray, Xishan Technology and Nanwang Technology were among the top, with 9,834,300 shares, 3,706,800 shares and 3,247,500 shares respectively. Judging from the market value of lifting the ban, the number of shares lifted by 0 companies exceeded 100 million yuan. Xishan Technology, Betray and Wanda Bearing are among the top companies in terms of market value, with market values of 246 million yuan, 229 million yuan and 76.73 million yuan respectively. From the perspective of the proportion of shares released from the ban to the total share capital, Xishan Technology, Wanda Bearing and Nanwang Technology are among the top, with 7.47%, 3.08% and 1.66% respectively.


The yield of major inter-bank interest rate bonds generally declined at the beginning of the session, and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds "24 interest-bearing treasury bonds 11" fell by 0.5bp to 1.8030%, hitting a record low; The yield of 10-year CDB "24 CDB 15" decreased by 2.25bp to 1.86%, and the yield of 30-year Treasury bond "24 Special Treasury Bond 06" decreased by 2.25bp to 2.02%.US Congressman French Hill will take over as the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. On December 12, local time, the reporter learned that French Hill, a Republican congressman and former banker from Arkansas, will be the next chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. The Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives is an important body of the US Congress, which is responsible for supervising the financial industry and formulating relevant legislation. Its responsibilities cover banking, the overall financial system and the cryptocurrency market. Hill will succeed retiring Patrick Patrick McHenry, whose formal appointment is expected to be approved by the Republican Party in the next few days. (CCTV)BlackRock suggested that investors should consider allocating up to 2% in Bitcoin. BlackRock, an asset management company, reported that interested investors are advised to consider allocating up to 2% of their portfolio in Bitcoin. "We believe that investors with proper management ability and risk tolerance have reason to include Bitcoin in multi-asset portfolios," BlackRock's four-member senior management team pointed out in the report. Team members include Samara Cohen, Chief Investment Officer of ETF, and Paul Henderson, Senior Portfolio Strategist of BlackRock Investment Institute.


CITIC Securities: Short-term white horse style may be dominated by stages due to compensatory growth and repair. CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that looking forward to 2025, we expect that the market style will gradually switch from individual investors to institutional investors, and ETF will become an important configuration tool. We believe that the construction of ETF portfolio should mainly depend on the judgment of style rotation and timing. We believe that in the short term, Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party and the Central Economic Work Conference will once again confirm the policy inflection point, which is expected to boost institutional investors' risk appetite, and the white horse style may prevail in stages due to compensatory growth and repair. However, in the large-cycle environment, it is still unable to meet the conditions for the continued dominance of white horse stocks, and it is necessary to continue to observe the price signals and policies.Full-page observation of People's Daily: Accelerate the construction of world-class universities and advantageous disciplines with China characteristics.Ministry of Finance of Korea: If the volatility is excessively intensified, more market stabilization measures will be taken.

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